Demographic Projections
52-53M inhabitants in 2050
INE and AIReF projections place the Spanish population between 52 and 53 million in 2050. Approximately 30% will be over 65 years old and the dependency ratio will double.
Key data
87,1 años
Male life expectancy 2070
+5.9 years vs 2019
91,4 años
Female life expectancy 2070
+4.6 years vs 2019
~1,4 hijos/mujer
Projected fertility 2047
Fertility rate
14,2%
Pension spending 2050
Of GDP (AIReF)
Cumulative net migration flow to 2050
View data in table
| Source | Cumulative flow |
|---|---|
| AIReF | 10,2 millones |
| INE | 6,8 millones |
| Eurostat | 6,1 millones |
| Promedio anual estimado | ~260.000 personas/año |
Population projection 2025-2070
View data in table
| Indicator | Projected value |
|---|---|
| Población 2050 (INE) | ~53 millones |
| Población 2070 (AIReF) | 52,7 millones |
| % mayores 65 años (2050) | ~30% |
| Aumento mayores 65 hasta 2050 | +6 millones |
Methodological context
NOTE: Projections are modeled scenarios, not predictions. Differences between sources are significant: AIReF projects 10.2M cumulative migration to 2050, INE 6.8M, and Eurostat 6.1M. AIReF assumes fertility convergence to 1.7 children/woman by 2070, while INE is more conservative. Immigration may soften but not reverse the aging trend. Demographic projections are long-term modeling exercises updated every 2-3 years. There is no comparable "historical data" as these are future scenarios.